Put two offers side by side and see what the equity is really worth once you account for clinical-stage risk.
Equity on paper isn't equity in your pocket. Each company stage starts with default odds and outcomes that you can edit. For public companies, the defaults assume today's share price is fair (expected value ≈ 1× paper) but spread the outcomes much wider for clinical-stage companies. Private equity gets a discount because you can't sell it. The tool compares expected value with the bad and good cases, before tax.
| Big Pharma Co | Clinical-stage biotech | Difference (B − A) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base salary | $260,000 | $245,000 | -$15,000 |
| Target bonus | $65,000 | $73,500 | +$8,500 |
| 401(k) match | $15,600 | $9,800 | -$5,800 |
| ESPP gain (est.) | $3,740 | $6,375 | +$2,635 |
| Equity per year (paper) | $60,000 | $100,000 | +$40,000 |
| Equity per year (expected) | $61,500 | $100,500 | +$39,000 |
| Sign-on (year 1) | $40,000 | $25,000 | -$15,000 |
| Year-1 total (expected) | $445,840 | $460,175 | +$14,335 |
| 4-yr total on paper | $1,657,360 | $1,763,700 | +$106,340 |
| 4-yr total (expected) | $1,663,360 | $1,765,700 | +$102,340 |
| 4-yr total, bad case | $1,609,360 | $1,443,700 | -$165,660 |
| 4-yr total, good case | $1,717,360 | $2,363,700 | +$646,340 |
ESPP value assumes you contribute up to the IRS limit (or 15% of base); the lookback case assumes an average gain of about 30% on contributions. Pre-tax, US only. Also consider layoff risk, title, scope and runway, which a calculator can't price.
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